European Perceptions of Scottish Independence Before and After Brexit

Abstract

This article examines European perceptions of Scottish independence before and after Brexit, focusing on the responses of EU institutions and member states. While the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and the Brexit vote of 2016 are well studied from a UK-centric perspective, the EU’s stance on Scotland’s potential secession has received less attention. This study explores how the EU’s position evolved across three key periods: the pre-Brexit years (2012–2015), the Brexit negotiation era (2016–2020) and the post-Brexit recalibration (2020–2024). The analysis reveals a nuanced European response, marked by cautious neutrality that occasionally gave way to more supportive rhetoric in the wake of Brexit. However, the EU’s institutional stance remains largely unchanged, with Scottish independence and potential EU membership still seen as internal matters for the UK. The article concludes by considering the implications of these findings for Scotland’s ongoing independence movement and its future relationship with the EU.